The Allocation of EU Budget Before and After Enlargement ∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
A declared objective of the EU is to provide support for the rural and poor regions of its member states. Recent research shows, however, that past EU budget allocations (in EU-15) can be explained, to a large extent, by measures of the distribution of voting power in the Council of Ministers deciding on the bulk of EU spending. Yet, empirical evidence indicates that also the “needs” of the member states play a role in the determination of their receipts from the EU budget. As a rough estimate power explains about 60 % of budget allocation and, when stable coalition structures among the Member States are allowed, even 90 %. In this paper we apply previous empirical methodologies to predict EU budget shares after the eastern enlargement. We compare incumbent member states’ predicted budget receipts with their predicted receipts before eastern enlargement. We examine the impact of various voting rule reform proposals on predicted budget shares and receipts in the EU25. We find that eastern enlargement has large effects on the budget receipts of the incumbent member states, while our analysis indicates that various voting rules discussed so far make, after all, only a little difference for most member countries. Germany is the biggest exception. It has gained remarkably from the recent voting rule reform (Constitutional Treaty). The key explanation is that population now counts more on power than before. This is likely to significantly decrease Germany’s future budget burden in the EU.
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تاریخ انتشار 2005